Covid-19

Covid-19 Analysis

Date of analysis: 01 October 2020

By Rizami Annuar


Top 20 Worldwide (sorted by Cases)

Country

Cases

Deaths

Mortality rate (%)

USA

7,233,043

206,928

2.86

India

6,312,584

98,678

1.56

Brazil

4,810,935

143,952

2.99

Russia

1,176,286

20,722

1.76

Colombia

829,679

25,998

3.13

Peru

814,829

32,463

3.98

Spain

769,188

31,791

4.13

Argentina

750,988

16,937

2.26

Mexico

743,216

77,646

10.45

South Africa

674,339

16,734

2.48

France

563,535

31,956

5.67

Chile

462,991

12,741

2.75

Iran

457,219

26,169

5.72

UK

453,264

42,143

9.30

Bangladesh

363,479

5,251

1.44

Iraq

362,981

9,181

2.53

Saudi Arabia

334,605

4,768

1.42

Turkey

318,663

8,195

2.57

Italy

314,861

35,894

11.40

Pakistan

312,806

6,484

2.07


Malaysia and UAE (sorted by Cases)

Country

Cases

Deaths

Mortality rate (%)

UAE

94,190

419

0.44

Malaysia

11,135

134

1.20


The World

Cases

Deaths

Mortality rate (%)

34,029,923

1,015,043

2.98


Why I created the Covid-19 analysis?

  • Most Covid-19 graphs analyses are time-series, i.e. the cumulative total is plotted on the vertical y-axis and date on the horizontal x-axis. I haven’t seen graph analysis comparing daily count (on y-axis) and cumulative total (on x-axis).

  • After watching the Minutephysics YouTube video about How To Tell If We’re Beating COVID-19, I had the idea to link the daily count and cumulative total.

  • From my own analysis, I’m beginning to seeing the daily count and cumulative total provide a more realistic leading indicator to eyeballing the trend – Are we improving? Worsen? “Flattening the curve” will happen over time (the “black line” on graph below). Yet, the “blue line” provides greater clarity for immediate trend signal – are we trending up or trending down. Trending down means the Covid-19 controls are effective, whilst trending up means there is a need for better Covid-19 controls.

  • The blue line fits the Covid-19 data to approximate the trend. As daily count declines, the blue line will drop, which is a positive sign. When there is no new daily Cases or Deaths being reported, the blue line will move closer to the horizontal x-axis to form a small letter “n”. That is the goal we want to achieve, the small letter “n” blue line!

  • Graph with black line: Cumulative total on vertical y-axis and time-series on horizontal x-axis.

  • Graph with blue line: Daily count on vertical y-axis and cumulative total on horizontal x-axis.

  • The blue line smoothing is based on local regression (loess) technique (reference).


Comparative: Malaysia Cases Lockdown Day 199

  • Malaysia lockdown: 18 March 2020

  • China Hubei lockdown: 23 January 2020

  • Italy lockdown: 9 March 2020


Given the lockdown started on separate dates, comparatively the Covid-19 controls in Malaysia are effective and the blue curve is trending in the right direction.



Comparative: Malaysia Deaths Lockdown Day 199