Covid-19 Analysis

Date of analysis: 08 September 2020

By Rizami Annuar


Top 20 Worldwide (sorted by Cases)

Country

Cases

Deaths

Mortality rate (%)

USA

6,300,671

189,208

3.00

India

4,280,422

72,775

1.70

Brazil

4,147,794

126,960

3.06

Russia

1,030,690

17,871

1.73

Peru

691,575

29,976

4.33

Colombia

671,848

21,615

3.22

South Africa

639,362

15,004

2.35

Mexico

637,509

67,781

10.63

Spain

525,549

29,516

5.62

Argentina

478,779

9,912

2.07

Chile

424,274

11,652

2.75

Iran

388,810

22,410

5.76

UK

350,100

41,554

11.87

France

328,980

30,726

9.34

Bangladesh

327,359

4,516

1.38

Saudi Arabia

321,595

4,107

1.28

Pakistan

299,233

6,350

2.12

Turkey

281,509

6,730

2.39

Italy

278,784

35,553

12.75

Iraq

264,684

7,589

2.87


Malaysia and UAE (sorted by Cases)

Country

Cases

Deaths

Mortality rate (%)

UAE

74,454

390

0.52

Malaysia

9,459

128

1.35


The World

Cases

Deaths

Mortality rate (%)

27,366,648

893,084

3.26


Why I created the Covid-19 analysis?

  • Most Covid-19 graphs analyses are time-series, i.e. the cumulative total is plotted on the vertical y-axis and date on the horizontal x-axis. I haven’t seen graph analysis comparing daily count (on y-axis) and cumulative total (on x-axis).

  • After watching the Minutephysics YouTube video about How To Tell If We’re Beating COVID-19, I had the idea to link the daily count and cumulative total.

  • From my own analysis, I’m beginning to seeing the daily count and cumulative total provide a more realistic leading indicator to eyeballing the trend – Are we improving? Worsen? “Flattening the curve” will happen over time (the “black line” on graph below). Yet, the “blue line” provides greater clarity for immediate trend signal – are we trending up or trending down. Trending down means the Covid-19 controls are effective, whilst trending up means there is a need for better Covid-19 controls.

  • The blue line fits the Covid-19 data to approximate the trend. As daily count declines, the blue line will drop, which is a positive sign. When there is no new daily Cases or Deaths being reported, the blue line will move closer to the horizontal x-axis to form a small letter “n”. That is the goal we want to achieve, the small letter “n” blue line!

  • Graph with black line: Cumulative total on vertical y-axis and time-series on horizontal x-axis.

  • Graph with blue line: Daily count on vertical y-axis and cumulative total on horizontal x-axis.

  • The blue line smoothing is based on local regression (loess) technique (reference).


Comparative: Malaysia Cases Lockdown Day 176

  • Malaysia lockdown: 18 March 2020

  • China Hubei lockdown: 23 January 2020

  • Italy lockdown: 9 March 2020


Given the lockdown started on separate dates, comparatively the Covid-19 controls in Malaysia are effective and the blue curve is trending in the right direction.



Comparative: Malaysia Deaths Lockdown Day 176