Covid-19

Covid-19 Analysis

Date of analysis: 21 July 2020

By Rizami Annuar

Top 20 Worldwide (sorted by Cases)

CountryCasesDeathsMortality rate (%)
USA3,830,010140,9063.68
Brazil2,118,64680,1203.78
India1,155,19128,0842.43
Russia777,48612,4271.60
South Africa373,6285,1731.38
Peru357,68113,3843.74
Mexico349,39639,48511.30
Chile333,0298,6332.59
UK295,37245,31215.34
Iran276,20214,4055.22
Pakistan266,0965,6392.12
Spain264,83628,42210.73
Saudi Arabia253,3492,5231.00
Italy244,62435,05814.33
Turkey220,5725,5082.50
Bangladesh207,4532,6681.29
Colombia204,0056,9293.40
Germany202,3459,0904.49
France176,75430,17717.07
Argentina130,7612,3731.81

Malaysia and UAE (sorted by Cases)

CountryCasesDeathsMortality rate (%)
UAE57,1933400.59
Malaysia8,8001231.40

The World

CasesDeathsMortality rate (%)
14,684,741610,1104.15

Why I created the Covid-19 analysis?

  • Most Covid-19 graphs analyses are time-series, i.e. the cumulative total is plotted on the vertical y-axis and date on the horizontal x-axis. I haven’t seen graph analysis comparing daily count (on y-axis) and cumulative total (on x-axis).
  • After watching the Minutephysics YouTube video about How To Tell If We’re Beating COVID-19, I had the idea to link the daily count and cumulative total.
  • From my own analysis, I’m beginning to seeing the daily count and cumulative total provide a more realistic leading indicator to eyeballing the trend – Are we improving? Worsen? “Flattening the curve” will happen over time (the “black line” on graph below). Yet, the “blue line” provides greater clarity for immediate trend signal – are we trending up or trending down. Trending down means the Covid-19 controls are effective, whilst trending up means there is a need for better Covid-19 controls.
  • The blue line fits the Covid-19 data to approximate the trend. As daily count declines, the blue line will drop, which is a positive sign. When there is no new daily Cases or Deaths being reported, the blue line will move closer to the horizontal x-axis to form a small letter “n”. That is the goal we want to achieve, the small letter “n” blue line!
  • Graph with black line: Cumulative total on vertical y-axis and time-series on horizontal x-axis.
  • Graph with blue line: Daily count on vertical y-axis and cumulative total on horizontal x-axis.
  • The blue line smoothing is based on local regression (loess) technique (reference).

Comparative: Malaysia Cases Lockdown Day 127

  • Malaysia lockdown: 18 March 2020
  • China Hubei lockdown: 23 January 2020
  • Italy lockdown: 9 March 2020

Given the lockdown started on separate dates, comparatively the Covid-19 controls in Malaysia are effective and the blue curve is trending in the right direction.

Comparative: Malaysia Deaths Lockdown Day 127

Cases Cumulative – Various Selected Countries. From 31 December 2019 to 21 July 2020

How the rest of the world is doing in the fight against Novel Coronavirus Covid-19:

Deaths Cumulative – Various Selected Countries. From 31 December 2019 to 21 July 2020

Correlation between China, Italy and Malaysia Lockdown Day 127

Correlation is a metric that measures the degree of relationship between two variables. The countries’ high percentage of correlation, suggests that they are closely related and predicting each other.

The estimated cases correlation:

  • Malaysia and China: 89.7%
  • Malaysia and Italy: 98.7%

The estimated death correlation:

  • Malaysia and China: 95.1%
  • Malaysia and Italy: 98.3%

References:

  1. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; An agency of the European Union; Download today’s data on the geographic distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide link
  2. RStudio Team (2018). RStudio: Integrated Development for R. RStudio, Inc., Boston, MA link. Taiyun Wei and Viliam Simko (2017).
  3. R package “corrplot”: Visualization of a Correlation Matrix (Version 0.84). Available from link.
  4. Correlation definitions: (i) link (ii) link (iii) link
  5. minutephysics (2020) How To Tell If We’re Beating COVID-19. Available at: link (Accessed: 29 March 2020).
  6. StatQuest with Josh Starmer (2017) Fiitting a curve to data, aka lowess, aka loess. Available at: link [Accessed 31 March 2020].
  7. En.wikipedia.org (2020). Local Regression. [online] Available at: link [Accessed 31 March 2020].
  8. Wicklin, R. (2016). What Is Loess Regression?. [online] SAS Blogs. Available at: link [Accessed 31 March 2020].
  9. Prabhakaran, S., (2016). Loess Regression And Smoothing With R. [online] R-statistics.co. Available at: link [Accessed 31 March 2020].

Covid-19 Best Case Scenario Assumption

Covid-19-v10.utf8.md

Date: 2020-05-01

By Rizami Annuar


Top 20 worldwide

Country

Cases

Deaths

Mortality rate (%)

USA

312,237

8,501

2.72

Spain

124,736

11,744

9.42

Italy

124,632

15,362

12.33

Germany

91,714

1,342

1.46

China

82,575

3,333

4.04

France

68,605

7,560

11.02

Iran

55,743

3,452

6.19

UK

41,903

4,313

10.29

Turkey

23,934

501

2.09

Switzerland

20,489

666

3.25

Belgium

18,431

1,283

6.96

Netherlands

16,627

1,651

9.93

Canada

13,882

231

1.66

Austria

11,766

186

1.58

Portugal

10,524

266

2.53

Brazil

10,278

432

4.20

South Korea

10,237

183

1.79

Israel

8,018

46

0.57

Sweden

6,443

373

5.79

Australia

5,687

34

0.60


Malaysia and UAE

Country

Cases

Deaths

Mortality rate (%)

Malaysia

3,662

61

1.67

UAE

1,505

10

0.66


Cases Cumulative

  • Best case scenario assumption: Zero Case and Death since 6 April 2020!

  • Left chart: Cumulative sum on vertical line and time-series on horizontal line.

  • Right chart: Daily count on vertical line and cumulative sum on horizontal line.

  • The blue line smoothing is based on local regression (loess) technique (reference).